(Disclosure: The following represents my opinions only. I am not receiving any compensation for writing this article, nor does Hydra Capital have any business relationship with companies mentioned in this post. I am long POE.V)
Just when you thought that Pan Orient Energy (POE.V, $1.79) had seen the last of its delays in the spud date of its big Indonesian exploration well (AYU-1), a press release came out after market close yesterday that pushed the spud date back two weeks from July 5th to July 20th. It's not really a material event, but I just thought I'd point it out. After all, what's an extra two weeks when I've been waiting nearly 10 years to see a well in this structure? Pan Orient is a 'smallish' position for me, but if the well hits condensate-rich gas and/or oil it could quickly become 'biggish' based on the pre-drill estimates of the target size. The well is expected to take about a month to drill and there's a great presentation with all the gory details on Pan Orient's website for those who haven't seen it yet. Given the exploratory nature of the well though I don't want to be overexposed if the well finds less gas than, say, Condor Petroleum just found in the Yakamoz-1 well, but I have to be there just in case CEO Jeff Chisholm finally bags his white whale.
Getting back to Condor Petroleum (CPI.TO, $0.93), the company just reported this morning that the Yakamoz-1 exploration well was deemed to be non-commercial. At this point, Condor is more of an ostrich in my books in light of its lack of ability to fly and apparent aptitude for laying giant eggs when it comes to exploration wells. The company states that the greater Yakamoz structure is still prospective and has previously stated that production plans are on track for this summer at Poyraz Ridge, but for me there's just not enough visibility on long-tail upside optionality on the stock any more. The Poyraz Ridge reservoirs have been reluctant to give up their gas in significant quantities on testing and it's hard for me to tell if Condor is lost in the weeds or actually still on the path to stable cash flow. I never forget a stock, so I'll be keeping an eye on Condor going forward, but for now I'm on the sidelines.