(Disclosure: The following represents my opinions only. I am not receiving any compensation for writing this article, nor does Hydra Capital have any business relationship with companies mentioned in this post. I am long CPI.TO)
Condor Logs 140 meters of Gas Pay at Poyraz-5, Western Turkey
Followers of this site may remember Condor Petroleum from a while back. When first mentioned, Condor was a Kazakh oil developer/explorer with a large cash balance, big targets and some reserves in Kazakhstan, and no debt. The company went on to drill and abandon a high-impact well in Kazakhstan almost a year ago (Flight of the Condor Hits an Air Pocket) which is never fun to see as a shareholder.
Fast forward to the present and you'll see that earlier this year Condor acquired Marsa Energy, a junior E&P that had a gas discovery in Western Turkey. Marsa didn't have the cash to delineate or develop its assets, so the acquisition by Condor was a good fit for both companies. Condor was of the view that Marsa's Poyraz discovery was open to expansion and the company set out to test that theory last month when it started drilling the Poyraz-5 appraisal well. Results released today seem to suggest that Condor was quite right, as it has logged gas all the way down to, and in one case below, mapped structural closure. This would suggest that Poyraz is at the upper end of, or bigger than, pre-drill estimates. Condor continues to press ahead with Poyraz development with first gas targeted for mid-2017. While this play is in completely different territory (and reservoirs) than what Valeura Energy is chasing farther north, Condor is one of very few companies set to benefit from selling into the gas-starved Turkish energy market.
Condor is up 20% as I'm writing this, but given that the company only has about 43.3 million shares outstanding, it may just be getting warmed up. We'll see what testing reveals after the Poyraz-3 well is drilled from the same pad and moved off, but for now it would appear that things are looking up for Condor. I've included the press release along with some slides (scroll to the bottom) from Condor's most recent slide deck for consideration below...
Link to the release here. Text copied below:
NEWS RELEASE OCTOBER 3, 2016
CONDOR’S POYRAZ 5 APPRAISAL WELL ENCOUNTERS OVER 140 METERS OF NET GAS PAY
CALGARY, October 3, 2016 – Condor Petroleum Inc. (“Condor” or the “Company”) (TSX: CPI) is pleased to announce drilling results of the Poyraz 5 appraisal well in Turkey.
Based on wireline log interpretation, the Poyraz 5 well encountered over 140 meters of net gas pay in multiple stacked reservoirs of Miocene (Kirazli and Gazhanedere sandstone formations) and Eocene (Sogucak carbonate formation) age. No gas-water contact was encountered in the Gazhanedere and the gas-water contact in the Sogucak was confirmed to be located beneath Condor’s mapped structural spill- point. Don Streu, Condor’s President and CEO noted that “the Poyraz 5 appraisal well validates both our seismic interpretation / modelling and petrophysical analysis. The results are very encouraging as only ‘gas down to’ volumes were used to calculate existing Proved reserves. As the ‘gas down to’ depth is now deeper based on Poyraz 5, it should positively impact reserves. Also, since our petrophysical analysis indicates that Poyraz Ridge is filled to the structural spill point, this fact should also enhance existing reserves”.
Production casing has been run and cemented on Poyraz 5. The drilling rig is moving to drill Poyraz 3, which is on the same drilling pad. Completion and testing operations will commence once the drilling rig moves off the shared pad.
In Kazakhstan, the Taskuduk Production Contract has been executed with the Government of Kazakhstan and provides for commercial production at the Company’s 100% owned Taskuduk oilfield. Production at Taskuduk is expected to re-commence during October. The Shoba oilfield, which commenced commercial production in September, continues to produce at rates exceeding 500 barrels per day as forecast.
Condor is a Canadian based oil and gas company with a 100% interest in the production rights to the Shoba oilfield and 100% interest in the exploration rights to the 3,777 square kilometer Zharkamys West 1 Territory located in the Pre-Caspian basin in the Republic of Kazakhstan and a 100% working interest in four contiguous production licenses covering 171 square kilometers located in the Gallipoli Peninsula in the Republic of Turkey. Condor is listed on the TSX under the symbol “CPI”.
Advisory on Forward-Looking Statements
All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Such statements are generally identifiable by the terminology used, such as “seek”, “appear”, “anticipate”, “believe'', “intend”,
“expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “continue”, “project”, “predict”, “budget”, “outlook”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “could”, “would” or other similar wording. Forward-looking statements in this news release include, but are not limited to, information concerning; wireline log interpretations related to the Poyraz 5 well including determining net pay, the ability to identify gas-water contacts, validate seismic interpretation / modeling and petrophysical analysis and determining that Poyraz Ridge is filled to the structural spill point; the ability and timing to increase reserves based on Poyraz 5 drilling results, future well completion, testing and production results; the timing and ability to conduct completion and testing operation on Poyraz 5; the ability of the Poyraz 5 well to become a future gas producing well; the ability and timing of commencing drilling the Poyraz 3 well; historical production rates may not be indicative of future production rates, capabilities or ultimate recovery; the timing and ability to access oil and gas sales markets; the timing and ability to re-commence production; projections and timing with respect to forecast production rates; the timing and ability to develop the gas reserves, construct the required infrastructure and deliver first gas; the timing and ability to obtain various approvals for the Company’s exploration and development activities; the expectations, timing and costs of exploration, appraisal and development activities; and funding future development and exploration activities.
Statements relating to reserves are deemed to be forward looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated. The reserve estimates described herein are estimates only. The actual reserves may be greater or less than those calculated. Estimates with respect to reserves that may be developed and produced in the future are often based upon volumetric calculations, probabilistic methods and analogy to similar types of reserves, rather than upon actual production history. Estimates based on these methods generally are less reliable than those based on actual production history. Subsequent evaluation of the same reserves based upon production history will result in variations, which may be material, in the estimated reserves. "Proved" reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated Proved reserves.
Forward-looking statements involve the use of certain assumptions that may not materialize or that may not be accurate and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, which may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such information. Condor’s operations are also subject to certain other risks and uncertainties inherent with oil and gas operations and additional information on these and other factors that could affect Condor’s operations and financial results. These factors are discussed in greater detail under Risk Factors - Risks Relating to the Company in Condor's Annual Information Form, which may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com). The Company believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be unduly relied upon. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or to revise any of the forward looking information, except as required by applicable law.
The TSX does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
For further information, please contact Don Streu, President and CEO or Sandy Quilty, Vice President of Finance and CFO at 403-201-9694.