(Disclosure: The following represents my opinions only. I am not receiving any compensation for writing this article, nor does Hydra Capital have any business relationship with companies mentioned in this post. I am long CPI.TO).
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. In Condor Petroleum's case, I really think that saying applies when it comes to reserves growth. The image below is a screen shot from the company's January 2017 presentation. The image is a map of the Poyraz Ridge field that Condor is developing in Turkey right now. Link to the whole presentation here: https://condorpetroleum.com/investor-relations/corporate-presentations/
To sum it up, Condor has: (1) found gas deeper than what was previously known, (2) discovered resources outside of previously drilled areas, and (3) identified new, previously undrilled, deeper reservoirs. Given that the Poyraz appraisal wells weren't tested before the end of 2016, the 1P reserves may not move that much, but Condor should have the Poyraz-3 and -5 wells tested this quarter and there's no doubt in my mind that Poyraz will have grown substantially in the 2P and 3P categories.
Condor should have first production from Poyraz Ridge on stream by mid-2017, but I think the more important story here is about how much bigger Poyraz Ridge appears to be getting. Predecessor company Marsa Energy had an after-tax NPV10 2P reserves value of US$85.7 million on its 21.2 BCF 2P reserves at Poyraz Ridge (January 2015, prior to being acquired by Condor), which is in excess of Condor's market cap already. Condor has C$21 million in working capital (as of November 30, 2016) and another US$10 million available through a recently established credit line, so the company is well positioned to fully delineate Poyraz Ridge. With only 43.3 million shares out, CPI offers better than average per share leverage to increases in net asset value and cash flow.
Condor's reserves should be out in mid-to-late February, which will just be the start of what's sure to be a very interesting year for the company. The company is also planning to drill a Poyraz "look-alike" structural target to the north in mid-2017 which would likely trigger a much bigger development project if successful. I'm not going to speculate on how much higher the company's 2P and 3P reserves are going in the meantime, but it appears to be "a lot" higher based on the maps above...